MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to elevate its yearly vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035, as part of its revamped automotive industry strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov unveiled this target on Aug. 31 during a meeting focused on the sector’s advancement. This figure encompasses vehicles produced for both Russia’s internal market and export purposes. Additionally, the plan aims for 80% of vehicles in the country’s new-vehicle market to be locally manufactured by 2035.
The Russian government ratified the updated automotive strategy on Aug. 24, extending the industry development framework through 2035. At the close of 2025, Russia’s annual vehicle production capacity was around 3.3 million units, although actual output that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. Capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles during 2024 and 2025, with truck and bus production rates reaching 35% and 43%, respectively.
The projected scenario for 2035 envisions a production of 2.5 million passenger cars and around 170,000 light commercial vehicles. It also anticipates manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production is assigned to four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles would be produced on one or two platforms. The plan estimates the overall new-vehicle market to be about 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially accounting for up to 20% of that market.
All vehicle segments are included in production goals
A secondary scenario featuring lower production and market figures is also part of the strategy. Under this alternative, annual vehicle production would reach approximately 1.69 million units by 2035, with the new-vehicle market projected at about 2.2 million units. For 2030, the primary scenario projects roughly 2.4 million units in the new-vehicle market, while the more conservative baseline estimates about 2 million units across all segments.
A significant focus of the revised framework is on powertrain and technological targets. Internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute between 67% and 83% of production in 2035, depending on the vehicle category. By then, electric and hybrid passenger cars should comprise at least 25% of Russia’s domestic new passenger-car market. The plan also aims to produce approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher. Driver-assistance and digital vehicle systems are also emphasized in the strategy document.
Capacity utilization and localization remain key indicators
Russia’s current manufacturing infrastructure exceeds its recent annual output. In 2025, passenger-car capacity was around 2.8 million units, yet actual production was nearly 700,000. The capacity for light commercial vehicles was about 300,000 units, with actual output near 80,000. Truck capacity totaled roughly 130,000 units, while bus capacity was close to 30,000. Electric powertrain vehicle production in 2025 reached about 4,400 units, slightly up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technological solutions across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets higher localization and technological independence benchmarks for domestically produced vehicles. Covering passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous systems, and digital vehicle technologies, the framework aims to combine the 2.8 million annual production goal with an 80% domestic market share. An implementation plan must be developed under the order that approved the updated strategy.