MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – The Bank of Russia anticipates an average key rate between 13% and 15% for the year 2027, according to its proinflationary scenario. This projection is part of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2027 to 2029. As of the end of August 2026, Russia’s main interest rate was maintained at 14%. The forecast indicates that inflation pressures are expected to be more pronounced than in the bank’s baseline economic outlook.
Under the proinflationary scenario, the forecast sets annual inflation at 4.5% to 5.5% in 2027. The Bank of Russia aims for inflation to reach its 4% target in 2028, with an expected average key rate of 11% to 12% that year. In 2029, the projected interest rate range narrows to 8.5% to 9.5%, while inflation is forecasted to stay steady at 4%.
Economic growth remains modest throughout the forecast period, assuming the same set of conditions. The central bank estimates Russia’s GDP will grow by 1% to 2% in 2027. For 2028, it expects growth of 0.5% to 1.5%, and for 2029, 1.5% to 2.5%. In 2026, the scenario suggests GDP growth between zero and 1%, with annual inflation ranging from 6% to 7%.
Proinflationary outlook indicates a higher interest rate trajectory
This scenario assumes increased domestic demand and slower supply growth compared to the baseline. It also factors in slower expansion of production capacity and persistent inflation expectations. The framework includes stronger wage increases relative to productivity, heightened competition for labor, increased protectionism, more fiscal support for demand, and intensified sanctions pressure.
These conditions lead to a projected interest rate path that is higher than the central bank’s baseline forecast. While the baseline envisions an average key rate of 10.5% to 12.5% in 2027 with 4% inflation, the proinflationary scenario results in a 13% to 15% interest rate range. Conversely, the disinflationary scenario predicts an average key rate of 9% to 11% with inflation between 3% and 4% for 2027.
Interest rate held steady at 14%
In July 2026, the Bank of Russia reduced its key rate to 14%, continuing a sequence of cuts from previous levels. Official data confirmed that the 14% rate remained in effect through August 31. This rate functions as Russia’s primary instrument for regulating inflation and financial stability. The central bank maintains a 4% annual inflation target as the core benchmark for its medium-term policy approach.
The policy guidelines also include a separate risk scenario featuring significantly higher inflation and interest rates. Under this case, the average key rate could reach 19% to 21% in 2027, with inflation expected to be between 11% and 13%. Therefore, the 13% to 15% projection pertains exclusively to the proinflationary scenario, not the baseline or risk scenarios outlined in the Bank of Russia’s framework for 2027 to 2029.