MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a new industry development plan that aims for coal output to reach 662 million tonnes annually by the year 2050. This target is included within the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government ratified the programme via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting strategic goals for long-term production, export volumes, and sector growth.
The plan presents four potential trajectories for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary target scenario, production is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, eventually reaching 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios project lower 2050 production levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside the production goals, Russia also defined export targets. The primary scenario anticipates coal exports of 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme encompasses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Production and Export Objectives
The government’s initiative emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacities while expanding additional coal resources. Greater emphasis will also be placed on coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which accounted for 48.3% of national output in 2024. The plan targets increasing this regional contribution to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The strategy also specifies goals related to coal processing and mining techniques. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, constituted 58.9% of total production. The plan aims to raise this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of coal output in 2024, and this is expected to increase to between 82% and 85% under the long-term indicators. The document also addresses productivity, technological advancements, safety standards, and environmental considerations.
Coal Sector Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia intends to implement the plan in three phases. The first phase, lasting until 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting the sector. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will concentrate on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, spanning from 2037 to 2050, will involve further development and modernization efforts. The Energy Ministry is responsible for overseeing progress, coordinating with federal and regional authorities, and engaging relevant organizations. Regular reports will be submitted annually to the Economic Development Ministry in accordance with government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This new plan replaces Russia’s earlier coal industry strategy approved in 2020, which extended to 2035. Novak indicated that the sector’s gross value added is projected to increase sixfold by 2050, with its overall multiplier effect reaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne production figure is identified as the scenario target rather than an absolute forecast.