BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – The European Union is projected to face an added €53 billion in transport expenses in 2026 as a result of higher road fuel prices. This estimate was published by Transport & Environment (T&E) on September 23 following an analysis of data spanning 28 weeks through September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditures from this period to the same timeframe in the previous year, adjusting for inflation. Of this total, roughly €40 billion is attributed to diesel costs. The calculation encompasses diesel and petrol expenditures associated with road transportation.
According to T&E, the rise in fuel prices contributed an average of €270 million daily to EU road transport expenses. Diesel accounted for approximately €203 million of this daily increase, while petrol contributed about €67 million. The group linked these price increases to supply constraints caused by conflicts in the Middle East and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined petroleum products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil together constitute around 43% of the petroleum products consumed in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has also reported notable fluctuations in crude oil and refined-product markets, with particular emphasis on diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group noted on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate threat to oil supplies. The report highlighted that increased EU refinery output and alternative global sources continue to satisfy demand, with sufficient stocks maintained for commercial and emergency needs. Nevertheless, the Commission emphasized that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to induce significant price volatility across global oil and petroleum markets.
Drivers and freight firms impacted by rising diesel costs
T&E estimated that the average diesel car driver in the EU paid about €142 more during the period studied. By September 14, the organization calculated a €30 increase on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul trucking in Germany experienced an average weekly extra fuel expense of roughly €236. With around 6.2 million trucks operating across Europe, as per the analysis, increased diesel prices have also affected road freight companies and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel continues to be essential for EU road transport and freight activities. T&E reports that in 2024, 77% of the EU’s diesel and gasoil consumption was attributed to road transportation. Data from Eurostat show that in the same year, 63.2% of road transport energy was supplied by gas and diesel oil. Gasoline represented 26.9%, with renewables and biofuels providing 6.2%. Electricity accounted for just 0.7%, while diesel and gasoline alone made up 90.1% of the energy used in road transport in 2024.
Recent EU data continues to monitor fuel price dynamics
On September 24, the European Commission issued its updated Weekly Oil Bulletin, including the latest petroleum prices for EU consumers. This report tracks weekly price variations, both including and excluding taxes, and maintains a historical record dating back to 2005. The update followed the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparative reports across member states. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel among the products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure provided by T&E is an estimate based on their analysis rather than an official EU figure. It reflects additional road fuel expenditures over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report further explores the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel comprising most of the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures to curb diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continues to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.