GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has revised upward its projection for worldwide merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, marking a significant boost from the 1.9 percent forecast issued in March. The WTO attributes this positive outlook to increased trade activity in the first half of the year, coupled with supply chain reconfigurations and heightened investments in artificial intelligence. Despite major disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer sectors, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent in the initial half of 2026. The organization now anticipates a 4.1 percent growth rate for merchandise trade in 2027.
A key driver of merchandise trade growth during the first half was demand related to artificial intelligence. Goods that enable AI, such as semiconductors and servers, represented 47 percent of the total global merchandise trade increase. Trade in these items surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO additionally stated that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. Robust demand for computing hardware played a crucial role in supporting trade, even as other sectors faced setbacks caused by conflict and transportation limitations.
Supply chains worldwide have also adapted to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers curbed the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent. Global LNG exports saw only a 1 percent decrease. Additionally, container throughput globally rose by 3.9 percent through July as trade shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled products bolster worldwide merchandise trade
The more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for commercial services. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel sectors. During the second quarter, international tourist arrivals declined by 0.8 percent, remaining only 0.4 percent higher overall in the first half of the year. Growth in travel expenditure also decelerated sharply between the two quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors experienced stronger performance despite challenges in travel and transport. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports also grew by 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO predicts a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027. The organization also projects global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade expansion varies significantly across regions
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal notable disparities across the global economy. The WTO expects Asia to lead merchandise export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North America’s exports are projected to increase by 5.7 percent, with Africa forecasted at 5.6 percent. South America is anticipated to record a 3.4 percent expansion, whereas Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest downturn, with merchandise exports forecast to fall 17.2 percent for the year.
Similarly, regional import growth exhibits substantial variation. Asia is forecast to see merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, and Africa at 8.9 percent. Imports into North America are expected to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are projected to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that the latest data demonstrates trade resilience while also underscoring unequal exposure to economic and geopolitical shocks.