ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease from last year’s historic peak. Despite this decline, the FAO notes that the total still ranks as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. This updated forecast is 3.4 million tonnes less than the projection made in July, representing an annual decrease of 61.1 million tonnes and marking the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
Forecasted maize production worldwide is now set at 1.309 billion tonnes, following weaker crop prospects that lowered earlier estimates. High summer temperatures and dry conditions negatively impacted yields across key European Union regions such as France and Poland. Additionally, official estimates led to downward revisions for India and Paraguay. However, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, contributing to their anticipated well-above-average maize output in 2026.
For wheat, the global forecast has been revised upward to 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Improved yield prospects for Canada and Morocco, each raised by about 1.5 million tonnes, along with increased expectations for Russia and Ukraine, contributed to this upward revision. Conversely, dry weather conditions reduced forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these gains, world wheat production remains projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and continues to be the second-largest crop on record.
Maize downturns lead to global cereal forecast reduction
For the 2026/27 season, world rice output is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from Myanmar’s improved figures and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka. These positive factors offset reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates total global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice consumption are expected to grow, wheat use is forecasted to decline from the elevated levels of last season. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed consumption remains significant for coarse grains, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stock levels across the globe remain comfortably high historically
At the close of the 2027 season, global cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes above the initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio worldwide is estimated at 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the prior season. Increases in wheat reserves are anticipated in Russia and Ukraine, whereas stocks of maize and barley have decreased, reducing the overall outlook for inventories.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is expected to reach 509.3 million tonnes, representing an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from the last estimate. Despite this rise, total trade remains below the record volume established in 2025/26. The recent uptick is mainly due to stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. For rice, international trade is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, while overall rice shipments in 2026 are still 1.9% below the 2025 record.